European market
Just before the harvest in the northern hemisphere, prices are struggling to move away from their support zone for a long time. Euronext wheat September contrct returned to its support of €200/t, while corn August contract is approaching €210/t. For its part, rapeseed is showing some volatility by almost canceling, during the last session, the gains at the beginning of the week.
Basically, the USDA confirmed the good production prospects in many countries. This is particularly the case in the Black Sea Basin, where Russia wheat priduction is increased by +2 Mt to 88 Mt, when local analysts expect more than 90 Mt. The same situation is in Ukraine, where the Argus Media crop tour highlights a promising potential. These volumes will be added to the stocks of the main exporters and will naturally strengthen competition on the international scene.
In France, barley harvests are starting with heterogeneous first yields, as expected given the disparate weather conditions in different areas. Céré'Obs welcomed the recent rainfall by increasing the percentage of wheat judged in good to excellent condition by one point, now at 77%. The next few days should bring more details about the 2026 crop.
On the geopolitical scene, the markets are reacting to the announcement of an agreement aimed at ending the war. Crude oil is falling at the beginning of the week to return to around $80/barrel. Although this withdrawal should be emphasized, a second phase of negotiations must open, in particular in order to decide on nuclear power. This promises to animate the markets again in the coming weeks.
American market
US prices remain anchored in a downward trend linked to seasonality. This is particularly the case for corn, for which the crop conditions have so far been sufficiently favourable. Although demand remains strong, attention is focused on supply, preventing prices from stopping the downward trend started at the beginning of the month.
Wheat crop does not evolve in the same way, but financial operators are reducing part of their long positions, which contributes to the current downturn. However, the USDA confirmed the fears concerning in particular HRW wheat, with a strong decrease in production compared to historical levels. It is indeed necessary to go back to 1970 to observe such a low wheat production in the United States.
On the competition side, CONAB has also adjusted its production estimates in Brazil. For the 2025/26 season, soybean and corn production are respectively increased by 0.12 Mt and 0.29 Mt, to 180.25 Mt and 140.46 Mt. Volumes remain substantial, but domestic demand remains sustained.
The operators are also keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where a peace agreement seems to have been reached. The next few days will be decisive on this issue.
Black Sea market
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