European market

A firm day yesterday on Euronext with a closing up on all products and contracts. The rebound in crude oil on the persistence of the conflict in the Gulf, is accompanied by a easing of the euro / dollar on weakening energy sector of the EU. And both present important direct and indirect supports for the grains. At $108/barrel, Brent in London yesterday marked its third highest close since the beginning of the conflict. The jolts of the euro /dollar seem to prevail in terms of influence on grains. Thus, the return of a parity below 1.1550 is closely followed by the operators.
The international wheat market was for its part animated by a new massive purchase on the part of Algeria. However, the French origin remains a spectator of this tender, which may explain the lesser enthusiasm for Euronext's May 2025 contract compared to the new season contracts.
Corn is not changing much and has been sailing in a range of 5 to 6 € / t for more than two weeks. This market is divided between a European supply which remains restrained on the one hand and an ample supply of the more competitive wheat on the other hand.
Rapeseed is back to € 500 / t thanks to the joint thumbs-up from crude oil and the euro / dollar but also with the support of the entire oilseed complex and in particular the soybeans complex which has regained its tone.
The European Commission published yesterday its first production forecasts for the EU27 in 2026-27: 
Soft wheat: 125.9 Mt against 134.2 MT in 2025
Barley: 54.7 Mt against 55.7 Mt in 2025
Corn: 61.2 Mt against 58.1 Mt in 2025
Rapeseed: 19.19 Mt against 20.1 Mt in 2025.

American market

The renewed firmness of crude oil after a chaotic start to the week brings a very slight support as a backdrop to the grains on Chicago. The funds have, as the day before, continued a new wave of purchases on all products.
Wheat prices are also supported by growing climate concerns about HRW winter wheat from the southern Great Plains. With temperatures of 30°C or more, the announcement of a few rare millimeters of rain for more than 10 days is insufficient to reassure operators. 
Corn, for its part, benefits from a US export activity that is still very strong for this time of year coupled with expectations of decreases in planting intentions in 2026 in the USDA report of March 31. 
Soybeans are taking advantage of the ambient firmness while continuing to be optimistic about the announcement of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping rescheduled for next May 14-15.  The USDA has, as every Thursday, published yesterday the weekly export sales figures in the United States : 
Wheat: 397,000 t in 2025/26 and 206,000 t in 2026/27
Corn: 1,218 Mt in 2025/26 and 135,000 t in 2026/26
Soybeans: 669,000 t in 2025/26.
 

Black Sea market

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