European market
The firmness of the euro against the dollar, combined with a sharp drop in oil, brought new elements yesterday in favor of a downward price adjustment. The announcement from the Ministry of Agriculture regarding the planted areas for the next season also provided reassuring signals about the production potential of winter crops.
Despite a challenging economic situation due to projected production costs, winter wheat areas are reported to be up by +2.3 % compared to last year, exceeding 4.56 mnt. For barley planted in the autumn, all qualities combined between milling and malting, areas are up by +3.1 %, reaching 1.23 mnt. However, the revision of carryover stock estimates by FranceAgriMer, announced yesterday, did not ease the heavy context given the large volumes. Prices on Euronext even hit new contract lows, both for the 2025 and 2026 harvest maturities.
The sharpest decline occurred in the rapeseed market, with prices returning to levels close to the lowest in two months. The February 2026 contract closed the session below 470 €/t, and below 450 €/t for the August 2026 maturity. Expectations of increased acreage for the next season are indeed weighing on the market, with an estimated +6.4 % rise in plantings compared to last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, thus exceeding 1.34 mnt in France.
American market
Chicago futures saw another session of declines, against the backdrop of ongoing talks regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict aimed at a ceasefire and a hypothetical peace agreement at this stage. Many commodities posted losses, including oil, a situation weighing on the entire market as the year-end approaches.
U.S. wheat prices recorded a sharp drop, even hitting a new contract low for the nearby March 2026 maturity. This contract is now trading below 5.10 $/bu, falling back under October levels. Funds have amplified this downward move.
At the same time, Chicago corn futures also posted a steep decline. The March 2026 contract is now trading at its lowest level since November, below 4.40 $/bu. The outlook for larger volumes of feed wheat available from the Southern Hemisphere this season is pressuring prices. However, Chicago corn prices remain well above the lows seen last August.
The downward trend also hit the entire soybean complex, with seeds, oils, and meal all falling yesterday. The January 2026 soybean contract reached a key technical zone by closing the gap opened on October 27, pushing prices back below 10.70 $/bu. The EPA’s announcement to postpone until the first half of 2026 its conclusions on blending mandates for 2026 and 2027 also weighed on soybean oil prices, which, after four consecutive sessions of decline, have returned to their lowest level in six months.
Black Sea market
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