European market

Prices rebounded on Euronext yesterday, erasing part of the losses recorded the day before. Uncertainty surrounding export activity from Russia and Ukraine remains significant following the latest attacks on port facilities. Export activity continues to be a key factor for both countries. Overriding the reassuring news released the previous day on this issue, wheat prices on Euronext therefore rebounded, both on the September contract and on the more distant contracts.

In yesterday's monthly USDA report, export volumes from these two countries were revised down by 2.5 mn t for the 2026/2027 marketing year compared with previous estimates. According to the USDA, this decline in export activity should mechanically increase their end-of-season stocks. This expected reduction in their presence on the global market provides little benefit to other exporting countries, with the exception of Kazakhstan, due to a contraction in global wheat trade compared with last year, according to the USDA.

For Europe, the USDA revised wheat and corn production downward to 134.2 mn t and 50.2 mn t respectively. Lower corn availability has therefore led to an upward revision of import volumes into Europe, but also to a downward revision of consumption, particularly in the animal feed sector this year. This assumption is widely shared among market participants given the current situation and price levels. Corn prices on Euronext, for the Nov 26 contract, are therefore approaching the technical level of 250 €/t.

Rapeseed prices also rebounded on Euronext yesterday, although they failed to break above the 540 €/t threshold for the Nov 26 contract. The current movement in the vegetable oils market is therefore limiting the upward pressure on rapeseed.

American market

Yesterday’s session, already driven by the situation in the Black Sea, where new attacks on port facilities were reported in both Ukraine and Russia, was also marked by gains following the release of the USDA’s monthly figures, which included several revisions to planted acreage.

In corn, the expected decline in US yields was confirmed by the USDA, which now projects a yield of 180.7 bu/acre, down 1.2 % from its July estimate and, more importantly, 3.1 % below the 2025 harvest level. At the same time, however, corn acreage was revised upward from last month, offsetting the impact of lower yields and allowing corn production to be projected at 406.75 mn t. This large volume will help meet rising international demand, from which US origins are expected to benefit, with exports forecast at more than 83 mn t. This situation would lead to a further reduction in stocks, bringing them back below 42 mn t in the US. Chicago prices rebounded sharply, moving back above 4.80 $/bu by the close for the Dec 26 contract, erasing a large part of the decline seen over the past two weeks.

Soybean acreage, already expected to show a strong increase from last year, was also revised upward by the USDA yesterday. Planted acreage is now estimated at 86.8 million acres and more than offsets the slight downward revision in yield, now estimated at 52.7 bu/acre and still very close to last year’s record level. These two adjustments bring estimated soybean production to 122.99 mn t, setting a new record for the US. These volumes will meet growing domestic demand from crushers, while export forecasts were left unchanged at 45.18 mn t, as in the previous month. Soybean prices showed strong intraday volatility before ultimately closing 1.2 % higher at 11.8325 $/bu for the Nov 26 contract.

The USDA maintained its estimates for wheat acreage, which remains sharply lower than in recent years. However, the Department of Agriculture slightly lowered its yield estimate compared with the previous July report. Total US wheat production is therefore expected to decline slightly to 41.66 mn t. This reduction led to a similar downward revision in projected end-of-season stocks. In Chicago, prices mainly reflected the renewed tensions observed yesterday in Russian and Ukrainian ports, where activity is currently heavily disrupted. Prices for the Dec 26 contract therefore rebounded and closed the session above 6.50 $/bu for the SRW contract.

Black Sea market

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