European market

Markets were catching their breath after the early-week drop. Operators had to digest the surprise from the USDA, particularly regarding U.S. corn production, which reached a record level. While U.S. corn swept everything in its path, wheat also had reasons to correct, especially since stocks among major exporters remain high compared to historical levels.

That said, the 190 €/t zone is still holding on the March Euronext contract, also signaling the return of a certain geopolitical risk premium in the market. There’s no shortage of factors, starting with the latest statements from the U.S. president regarding Iran. The White House tenant is categorical about implementing duties of around 25 % for all countries trading with Iran. China could thus become collateral damage, which naturally calls for caution.

Still in China, the Canadian prime minister’s visit is being closely watched. He is emphasizing his willingness to improve trade conditions for the canola complex. The duties imposed by the Middle Kingdom have hurt Canadian canola prices, forcing Canadian authorities to ease tensions. The coming days will be decisive on this matter.

On the oils side, Indonesia may reconsider its ambitions regarding the implementation of B50 in 2026. Palm oil prices remain too high for now to roll out this new blending mandate, which would further tighten the balance sheet.

As usual, weather will be key in the coming weeks, as a cold wave hits Russia. While most of the plain is covered with snow, some areas remain under close watch, which calls for caution.

American market

U.S. prices are struggling to change direction and are still reeling from the USDA shock. The U.S. agency surprised operators and is, for now, limiting any price rebound. It must be said that balance sheets for the various products remain comfortable, led by U.S. corn, whose balance sheet is once again growing heavier.

On the trade front, note yesterday’s exceptional new U.S. soybean sales: 168,000 mnt to China and 152,000 mnt to Mexico. Here again, Chinese dynamics remain in the spotlight, with the expected agreement looming at the end of 2025.

In the short term, attention is turning to South America, particularly Brazil, as harvest work begins. Potential remains strong, which, once again, does little to support U.S. markets. Competition is expected to be particularly fierce, forcing the different origins to stay competitive.

On the macroeconomic side, U.S. crude oil is benefiting from geopolitical tensions to break through the symbolic 60 $/barrel mark, its highest level since last November.

Black Sea market

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