European market

Following the previous day's upward movement, wheat prices on Euronext pulled back, serving as a reminder that the arrival of the Argentine and Australian harvests on the export market starting at the end of this year will require ensuring that European origins remain competitive. The weakness of the euro nevertheless limited this downward movement. The December 2026 contract thus closed above €232/t.

European market participants are also closely monitoring the ongoing talks between Russia and Ukraine and the progress in the negotiations. To date, many questions regarding the security of grain export flows remain unanswered. The large volumes of grain to be exported from Ukraine and Russia continue to carry the risk of seeing ending stock levels grow in both countries by the end of the marketing year.

Oilseed prices showed little change yesterday. The drop observed in soybean prices was offset by renewed firmness in canola, which returned to trade for the January 2027 contract in Winnipeg at its early last-week level, thus erasing the sharp decline recorded the previous week. The slight decrease in rapeseed oil prices in Europe did not affect rapeseed prices on Euronext, which attempted to stabilize yesterday for the February 2027 contract above €540/t.

American market

Yesterday's session in Chicago saw a broad pullback following the previous day's rebound. SRW wheat prices for the December 2026 contract returned to test the technical resistance zone above $6/bu before pulling back and returning to their lowest level since last February. This return to 9-month lows was driven by a strengthening dollar. The dollar index thus climbed back to its highest level since April, trading above 103.10, forcing US origin prices to adjust in order to remain competitive for export.

This same factor also led corn to pull back, slipping back below $4.45/bu for the December 2026 contract and erasing the upward movement seen following Tuesday's USDA report. Ongoing discussions between US envoys and Russian and Ukrainian officials appear to reassure some market participants, despite the tentative progress observed in the talks so far.

The recent rebound in US soybean prices prompted precautionary buying from certain importers, such as China. The USDA consequently reported a flash sale of 136,000 tons yesterday destined for China. This news limited the downward price movement, with the December contract trading around $12.20/bu. Market participants will closely watch today's release of weekly export sales figures due to the wide price swings recorded this week.

Black Sea market

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