European market

The currency market is stirring ahead of next week’s December FED meeting. Following yesterday’s release of another disappointing U.S. labor market indicator, the likelihood of a U.S. rate cut is increasing. Almost automatically, the dollar index is retreating. The euro/dollar thus jumps to 1.1660, reaching its highest level since late October.

This context is weighing on European grain prices. However, cereals are holding up well against the downward pressure implied by the strengthening of the single currency. The failure so far of peace negotiations on Ukraine and Vladimir Putin’s recent belligerent statements continue to maintain a certain risk premium on European grains.

Meanwhile, on Euronext, trading is lively ahead of the expiration next Wednesday, December 10, of the December 2025 contract. Unlike its predecessors, this one is bowing out on a firm note.

International wheat prices are temporarily supported by Algeria’s massive purchase. The OAIC may have bought yesterday between 800,000 t and 900,000 t of wheat for deliveries scheduled throughout February. On this optional-origin tender, Black Sea wheat will likely give way to highly competitive Argentine wheat for now.

Rapeseed is suffering more, with prices down -4.50 €/t yesterday on the Euronext February 2026 contract, which has fallen back below 478.00 €/t. The market fears a sharp upward revision of Canadian canola production for 2025 in Thursday’s Statscan report. The oilseed complex is also following the disappointment in U.S. soybeans, under pressure from Chinese purchases that may take longer than expected. Finally, the anticipated increase in Malaysian stocks in November is pushing palm oil lower in Kuala Lumpur.

American market

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent disappointed the soybean market yesterday by stating that the purchase of 12 mnt of U.S. soybeans would be completed by the end of February 2026. Initial statements following the meeting in South Korea between Donald Trump and Wi Jinping had mentioned December 31, 2025 as the deadline for completing the 12 mnt purchases. Enthusiasm around China has therefore cooled somewhat, prompting funds to return to selling across all products.

Thus, despite a notable decline in the dollar index amid weak U.S. employment figures, prices closed lower for all products last night in Chicago.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mr. Rollins, however, struck a reassuring and positive tone, saying that China’s commitments were firm and that they would indeed purchase 12 mnt of U.S. soybeans.

The U.S. wheat market was cautious yesterday ahead of today’s Statscan report, which is expected to significantly raise Canadian wheat production for 2025 from the previously estimated 36.6 mnt to around 38.5 mnt, according to analysts’ consensus. All this comes after recent upward revisions in production in Argentina and Australia.

Black Sea market

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