European market
Market momentum is bringing renewed firmness to agricultural commodities. While wheat managed, on the Sep 26 contract, to return to the psychological area of 210 €/t, rapeseed, for its part, posted a new closing high on the Aug contract at 509 €/t. Geopolitical turbulence remains at the heart of the equation and is driving New York crude oil above 95 $/barrel. At the same time, the euro/dollar parity remains below the 1.17 threshold, thus offering a slight surplus of competitiveness to European origins.
Although, for the time being, trade flows out of France are mainly focused on Morocco, it will be necessary to attract demand from other destinations in the months ahead. In parallel, the international scene is marked at the end of this week by the new Saudi Arabian tender, which is seeking to contract 710,000 t of wheat.
In the field, the situation is evolving in light of the precipitation deficit affecting France in particular. The publication of crop conditions by the CereObs service, expected this Friday, will be closely watched as the dry spell in place shows no sign of easing. Beyond the current lack of water, it is above all the scarcity of rainfall in forthcoming models that is raising concerns. Some markets are reacting strongly, as illustrated by the renewed firmness of spring malting barley in Creil, which has regained nearly 10 €/t since the beginning of the month.
The upcoming expiry of the May rapeseed contract, combined with the low number of remaining open positions, is prompting producers to no longer anchor themselves to the prices currently on display, even though support is also visible on the new crop. The vegetable oil complex remains firmly oriented, pulling oilseeds along in its wake.
American market
US markets remain caught in the geopolitical turmoil, while also having to contend with on-the-ground realities. This latter factor explains the very strong performance of HRW wheat prices in a context of marked drought. The lack of precipitation is expected to once again deteriorate crop conditions in the country early next week, thus providing a supportive element for the markets.
US export sales once again reflect a favorable dynamic, with:
Wheat: 129,000 t
Corn: 1.3 mn t
Soybeans: 365,000 t
It should be noted that in South America, dry conditions are also prevailing over part of the Brazilian plains, raising questions about corn yield potential. On the Argentine side, harvest is continuing, with 10 % of soybean areas and 26 % of corn areas already harvested. Yields remain satisfactory, confirming significant volumes available in the country over the coming weeks.
Black Sea market
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