European market
European markets are starting the week in hesitation, while several major reports will be published in the coming days. The USDA will be issued tonight with an adjustment of the world balance sheets, followed on Wednesday by the MPOB concerning the Malaysian palm oil balance sheet. Finally, the CONAB will come at the end of the week to highlight the ample Brazilian supply. These publications could generate volatility, even if, private analysts have not waited for official data.
Another point to watch: the FED's decision to cut rates or not at Wednesday's conference. With a further decline of 25 basis points anticipated, the dollar index is falling, mechanically leading to an increase in the euro/dollar parity, now close to 1.1650.
This renewed firmness of the euro does not favour French exporters, who are faced with particularly active Argentine competition, especially for Morocco. If the French offers remain globally competitive on the international scene, the South American origins play the trouble-parties on certain destinations. In addition, the question of qualities remains central, with protein levels still subject to discussion.
On the oilseed market, rapeseed holds above the support of € 475/t on the February Euronext contract. However, a downward trend is back on this market, under the pressure of the complex: soybeans are back below $11/bu, palm oil is approaching 4,000 ringgits/t, while canola continues its decline. The geopolitical factor remains predominant for canola, with Chinese operators still absent from exchanges.
In Ukraine, Argus Media announces an estimated wheat production of 23.9 Mt for the 2026-27 harvest, compared to 23 Mt this year, mainly thanks to an increase in areas and favourable sowing conditions.
American market
American operators are waiting for the USDA report published tonight, even if there is a lot of new elements on the market. Donald Trump's statements continue to sow uncertainty: after China, it is now India that finds itself confronted with trade agreements with the White House. Discussions are going well between the various protagonists, but the American president raises the tone by evoking the possibility of introducing taxes on certain agricultural products, such as rice.
For the local market, the White House announces an envelope of 12 billion dollars for the agricultural sector, including 11 billion intended for the FBA program (Farmer Bridge Assistance). This aims to offer global support to American producers, with a calculation based on last year's losses and production cost estimates.
On the market side, China plans to auction imported soybeans in order to counteract the appetite of private operators for Brazilian soybeans, which are still more competitive. The US origins have no choice but to adjust to guarantee access to the Chinese market, while the objective of the 12 Mt promised a few weeks ago is far from being achieved. Note, however, a new exceptional sale of 132,000 t of soybeans to this destination, a few days after the 462,000 t already sold.
The USDA continues to catch up its delay by publishing export sales for the week of November 6: 462,000 t of wheat, 980,000 t of corn and 510,000 t of soybeans.
Black Sea market
Click here to request full access to the AgriMarkets report to find out more about the Black Sea region, and follow price trends in Russia on a daily basis.
