European market

The escalation of tensions on the international scene is supporting the prices of agricultural raw materials. Whether it is wheat, corn or rapeseed, all of them approached their contracts highest levels at the end of last week. It must be said that concerns remain high regarding world trade.
In the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz continues to focus attention as strikes increase in the region. In this context, the risk premium is reappearing on the energy markets. Crude oil is once again approaching $85 per barrel in New York. At the same time, the closure of the Kerch Strait, between the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, is putting additional pressure on Russian exports. As the world's leading exporter of wheat, Russia is seeing its export flows slowed down, which has repercussions on the entire international scene. At the same time, the attacks on Odesa are also complicating the operations of Ukrainian exporters. As a strategic crossroads for world trade in agricultural raw materials, the Black Sea is again largely paralyzed, contributing to further straining the global balance.
In France, the harvest is progressing at a steady pace since 92% of the wheat was harvested on July 13th. The field work is therefore approaching its end. The precocity and heterogeneity of the 2026 harvest deserve to be highlighted. The eyes are now turning to corn, while the weather conditions remain worrying. The lack of rainfall and the scorching temperatures lead to a new degradation of the crops. According to FranceAgriMer, the share of corn areas judged to be in good to excellent condition is now only 41%, compared to 72% at the same time last year. Undoubtedly, the 2026 harvest could be the weakest since the beginning of the century, a prospect that is not without consequences on the markets.
The last sessions have also been marked by a particularly strong activity on Euronext. The volumes traded were considerable, in a context mixing hedging operations, adjustments of positions on the part of operators and return to purchases of certain investment funds.

American market

Chicago prices have also managed to firm up significantly last week on geopolitical tensions. The slowdown in trade flows in some regions, combined with rising energy prices, is supporting agricultural raw materials. It must be said that the use of corn for ethanol production and soybeans for biodiesel production is showing remarkable dynamism in the current context.
At the same time, on the international scene, the United States has once again managed to record significant sales of soybeans. During the last session of the week, three exceptional transactions were announced :
340,000 tons to China ;
256,634 tons to Mexico ;
110,000 tons to an unknown destination.
On the ground, the weather remains in the spotlight as corn and soybeans enter a crucial phase of their vegetative cycle: flowering. In view of the tensions currently agitating the international scene, no major climate incident is allowed. This situation is therefore likely to maintain the firmness of the markets and the volatility of prices.

Black Sea market

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