European market
Grain prices on the European market marked a decline yesterday. The firmness of the euro against the dollar remains a penalizing factor, in a context where export competitiveness is essential. Fob wheat prices for export must therefore logically adjust to Russian and Ukrainian prices, while now integrating competition from the Southern hemisphere, in particular Argentine origins.
In terms of balance sheets, the Canadian national statistical organization, Statistics Canada, communicated yesterday on its production estimates confirming strong productions. These new figures strengthen the volumes available in the major exporting countries. In Canada, soft wheat production is up +11% compared to last season, exceeding 32.8 Mt. The increase is also observed in durum wheat where the harvest is estimated at 7.13 Mt, up by +11.8% compared to last year. In barley, the figures also confirm the increase already announced with a production that exceeds 9.72 Mt up by + 19.4% compared to 2024.
In canola, Canadian production is now formalized at 21.8 Mt, an increase of +19.4% compared to last year. This element has also led canola prices in Winnipeg to mark another session of decline and to regain their lowest levels since last October. Rapeseed prices on Euronext also marked a decline yesterday.
American market
Corn prices rose yesterday in Chicago. The March 2026 contract closed the session above $4.47/bu, without however erasing the decline of the previous day. New exceptional sales have been reported by the USDA to Mexico in the amount of 392,500 t and Colombia for 100,800 t.
In wheat, prices have also shown an increase, allowing the March 2026 contract to return to around $5.40/bu. The confirmation by Statistics Canada of an increase in wheat availability did not finally weigh on the prices of SRW wheat. The relaxation of the dollar since the beginning of December still provides support for US origins.
After the decline observed at the beginning of the week on soybeans, prices yesterday showed a timid progression. The March 2026 contract for soybeans rebounded as the support of $11.25/bu approached, in a context marked by the hope of new business for export to China. A few days before the USDA's monthly report, the Chinese import potential will be closely monitored, knowing that Brazilian exports have so far largely covered the country's needs.
Black Sea market
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