Pre-opening 20/08/2019
Paris Chicago
Wheatunch to + 1 €unch
Cornunch+ 2 cents
Rapeseed+ 1 €
Soybean+ 5 cents
Indexes 19/08/2019
€/$1.1103 $
Oil WTI56.21 $/b

Wheat (€/t)
Sep 19165.75+0.50
Dec 19171.00+0.00
Mar 20174.75+0.00
May 20177.75+0.00
Sep 20178.50+0.00
Corn (€/t)
Nov 19165.25+0.75
Jan 20170.00+0.50
Mar 20173.00-0.25
Jun 20176.00-1.25
Aug 20178.50-1.00
Rapeseed (€/t)
Nov 19378.50+1.50
Feb 20379.00+1.00
May 20377.25+1.25
Aug 20361.25+0.75
Nov 20365.75-1.00
Nitrogen solution (€/t)
Nov 19177.50+0.00
Mar 20187.50+0.00
Jun 20187.50+0.00
Sep 20187.50+0.00
Nov 20187.50+0.00

8/19/2019

Wheat (€/t) : 441 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
20Call Dec 191821.90
300Call Dec 192000.44
1Call Mar 201739.20
10Call May 201797.60
60Call May 201826.70
50Put Dec 191704.51
Corn (€/t) : 1500 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
400Call Nov 191702.07
400Call Nov 191900.45
400Put Nov 191601.57
200Put Nov 191622.23
100Put Nov 191653.50
Rapeseed (€/t) : 71 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
1Call Feb 203807.59
7Call May 20377.511.00
3Call May 203809.60
40Put Nov 193805.20 - 5.30
20Put Feb 203703.80

Wheat (¢/b)
Sep 19465.5000+0.5000
Dec 19472.5000+0.0000
Mar 20479.5000+0.2500
May 20485.0000+0.2500
Jul 20489.7500+1.2500
Corn (¢/b)
Sep 19365.0000+2.7500
Dec 19374.5000+2.7500
Mar 20387.0000+2.7500
May 20394.2500+2.7500
Jul 20400.5000+2.2500
Soybean (¢/b)
Sep 19854.0000+6.7500
Nov 19866.5000+6.7500
Jan 20880.5000+6.5000
Mar 20893.7500+6.7500
May 20905.5000+6.7500
Soy meal ($/st)
Sep 19292.0000+1.8000
Oct 19293.9000+1.8000
Dec 19297.2000+1.8000
Jan 20298.8000+1.9000
Mar 20302.0000+1.8000
Soy oil (¢/lb)
Sep 1928.6800+0.2500
Oct 1928.8000+0.2500
Dec 1929.0400+0.2500
Jan 2029.2800+0.2400
Mar 2029.5500+0.2400

8/20/2019

Physical (€/t)
Durum wheat delivered Port la Nouvelle Spot - July 2019 basis235.00+0.00
Wheat delivered Rouen - July 2019 basis162.00-2.00
Corn delivered Bordeaux Spot - July 2019 basis164.00-2.00
Corn FOB Rhin Spot - July 2019 basis159.00-1.00
Feed barley delivered Rouen - July 2019 basis151.00+0.00
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot - July 2019 basis169.00-2.00
Rapessed FOB Moselle Spot - Flat - 2019 harvest376.50-1.50
Sunseed delivered St Nazaire Spot - Flat - 2019 harvest320.00+0.00
Feed peas FOB Creil Spot - August 2019 basis193.00+0.00
Analysis 20/08/2019

European market

Despite of a lower Eurodollar that is now clearly dealing below 1.11, Euronext prices have increased losses by the end of yesterday. The wheat and the corn lost -2 €/t on nearby deliveries. The tracking of port shipments is showing that barley and soft wheat will be sent to China. The volume of shipments toward Algeria remain important for our origins and 150 000 t will be loaded at this beginning of the second part of August. The good quality of the 2019’s French crop will be able to match most of importers specifications.

Corn prices have dropped again and the November 2019’s contract is now dealing at 165.25 €/t, under the levels seen on May 13. Traded volumes were limited. The outlook to see large imports of corn in Europe are still weighing on the market despite of the poor estimations of the 2019’s crop in France.

American market

Corn prices were in little evolution yesterday and stabilized on the lower levels reached by the end of last week. Prices of the December 2019 contract are now on the lowest level seen this year in Chicago. First echoes from the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour are disappointing after having visited the north of Ohio and the South Dakota. The potential is respectively seen at -6 and -11% below the level of last year. These elements are supportive for the market and are reinforcing the doubts issued from the conclusions of last week USDA’s statement. The US Ag Minister reported higher yields while only 56% of the crops are currently considered in good to excellent conditions.

For the soybean, the crop rating is one point below last week with 53% of crops judged in good to excellent conditions. Prices have managed to stabilize just above the technical support of 8.65 $/b on the November 2019’s delivery.

In the context of lower wheat prices, Morocco has announced a tender for US origins as part of the preferential rate import quota. Volumes announced are 576 000 t of soft wheat and 345 455 t of durum wheat.

Black Sea market

To estimate the next corn production in Ukraine, Agritel’s team has started a crop tour yesterday. During all the week, the crop conditions will be watched. This year, the corn acreage has increased to 4.97 M ha vs 4.57 M ha last year. The largest gains are recorded in the North oblasts of Chernigov, Kiev, Poltava, Cherkassy, Vinnitsa and Soumy, regions where the best yields are also displayed.

No doubt that Ukrainian farmers know how to adapt the crop rotation. They draw lessons from the conditions met in 2018 when the production touched a record high of 36 Mt with an average yield of 7.8 t/ha. In 2019, the production should be close to this level, but if a similar yield as 2018 is applied, the production could touch 39 Mt!

Is this number possible to reach? This will be assessed by our crop tour team during this week.

Follow Agritel’s corn crop tour in Ukraine live from the fields with daily yields’ estimations in subscribing to our reports. Send a mail to eat@agritel.com or click here for more info.  

Live news

First echoes of corn yields are disappointing in Midwest

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