Pre-opening 20/07/2018
Paris Chicago
WheatUnch+1 ct
CornUnch to +1 €/t+1 ct
RapeseedUnch
Soybean+4 cts
Indexes 19/07/2018
€/$1.1588 $
Oil WTI69.46 $/b

Wheat (€/t)
Sep 18188.00+3.25
Dec 18189.25+4.00
Mar 19191.00+3.50
May 19192.25+3.25
Sep 19184.75+2.75
Corn (€/t)
Aug 18172.50+1.75
Nov 18175.50+2.00
Jan 19177.50+1.75
Mar 19178.75+2.75
Jun 19181.25+2.50
Rapeseed (€/t)
Aug 18360.50-0.50
Nov 18368.00-1.00
Feb 19367.75-0.75
May 19368.25-0.75
Aug 19353.00-1.00
Nitrogen solution (€/t)
Sep 18152.00+0.00
Nov 18154.00+0.00
Mar 19162.00+0.00
Jun 19160.00+0.00
Sep 19153.00+0.00

19/07/2018

Wheat (€/t) : 3522 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
1Call Sep 1816620.50
1Call Sep 1816721.01
3Call Sep 1816818.50
3Call Sep 1816916.60
3Call Sep 1817016.00 - 16.60
2Call Sep 1817117.00
4Call Sep 1817512.00
2Call Sep 1817612.02
344Call Sep 181808.00
4Call Sep 181864.50
2Call Sep 181874.30
4Call Sep 181902.00
10Call Sep 181952.20
10Call Sep 181961.70
16Call Sep 182001.00
1Call Dec 1817813.80
6Call Dec 181887.80 - 8.30
1Call Dec 181898.10
200Call Dec 181908.00
20Call Dec 181926.50
500Call Dec 181956.20
208Call Dec 182005.10
200Call Dec 182034.52
400Call Dec 182054.10
100Call Dec 182093.50
200Call Dec 182152.70
700Call Dec 182202.00 - 2.40
1Call Mar 191909.90
7Call May 192008.00
1Put Dec 181888.00
106Put Dec 181898.50 - 8.70
450Put Mar 191803.77
12Put Mar 191909.50
Corn (€/t) : 5 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
5Put Nov 181756.00
Rapeseed (€/t) : 517 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
50Call Nov 1836011.27
50Call Nov 183754.00
200Call Nov 18382.53.76
8Call Feb 193709.00 - 10.00
9Call May 19367.513.30
3Call May 1937011.90
3Put Nov 183603.27
55Put Nov 183656.70
14Put Nov 18367.57.70 - 7.90
2Put Nov 183708.20
10Put Feb 193555.00
100Put Feb 193657.58
2Put Feb 19367.58.94
1Put Feb 1937011.40
10Put Feb 1937515.00

Wheat EU (€/t)
Wheat (¢/b)
Sep 18504.2500+11.2500
Dec 18520.5000+12.0000
Mar 19536.0000+12.5000
May 19545.7500+11.7500
Jul 19549.7500+10.7500
Corn (¢/b)
Sep 18351.2500+3.2500
Dec 18365.0000+3.5000
Mar 19376.5000+3.0000
May 19382.7500+3.0000
Jul 19388.7500+2.7500
Soybean (¢/b)
Aug 18846.0000+4.2500
Sep 18852.0000+4.0000
Nov 18861.5000+4.5000
Jan 19871.7500+3.5000
Mar 19880.7500+3.5000
Soy meal ($/st)
Aug 18328.8000-1.9000
Sep 18327.4000-2.0000
Oct 18326.6000-2.0000
Dec 18326.1000-1.7000
Jan 19324.1000-1.4000
Soy oil (¢/lb)
Aug 1827.8300+0.4400
Sep 1827.9300+0.4100
Oct 1828.0100+0.4000
Dec 1828.2100+0.3800
Jan 1928.4800+0.3500

20/07/2018

Physical (€/t)
Durum wheat delivered Port la Nouvelle Spot - July 2018 basis225.00+0.00
Wheat delivered Rouen - July 2018 basis190.00+1.00
Corn delivered Bordeaux Spot - July 2017 basis164.00+1.00
Corn FOB Rhin Spot - July 2017 basis159.00+1.00
Feed barley delivered Rouen - July 2018 basis183.00+1.00
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot - July 2018 basis221.00+0.00
Rapessed FOB Moselle Spot - Flat - 2018 harvest360.00+0.00
Sunseed delivered St Nazaire Spot - Flat - 2017 harvest330.00+0.00
Feed peas FOB Creil Spot - August 2018 basis190.00+0.00

Events

Analysis 20/07/2018

European market

Harvests in France progressed a lot this week. Operators still report overall a good quality in both protein and PS.

Harvest progress in Northern Europe reinforces expected yield declines, pushing buyers to come back and pulling prices up on the physical market. Prices on futures market are also progressing, the September 2018 expiry on Euronext reached the level of 188 €/t and is close to its highest levels for almost a year.

Markets in Europe are also increasing with a euro/dollar parity which is displayed below 1.17 at the time being.

In oilseeds, prices have not changed so much, still suffering from a lackluster European context in terms of trade opportunities for biofuels, even though volumes of the 2018 crop are decreasing for rapeseed. Operators are currently watching import prices for canola, which could start to be more interesting than European rapeseed in the European Union which is much more expensive.

American market

Weekly export sales figures released yesterday by the USDA were in line with expectations for the current campaign. In new crop, sales were higher than expected. In corn, volumes reached 774,500 t and soybeans exceeded 613,000 t for the next season 2018/2019.

Prices then rose, buoyed by the surge in demand for US corn, while the Buenos Aires stock exchange slashed its corn production estimate to 32 Mt. At the end of the day, corn was trading at 3.65 $/bu for the December 2018 deadline, thus returning to levels equivalent to July 10th. The rebound movement observed since the recent lows allows corn to come and test the downward trend in place since the end of June. The situation is similar in soybean, however, this market is evolving in an uncertain context because of trade tensions between China and the USA.

In wheat, the maturity of September 2018 rose yesterday and is now displayed above 5 $/bu in Chicago for the first time for the last 7 days. However, crossing this level has not led to a bullish acceleration for the moment while the market is still hesitant between the US situation and tighter fundamentals on a more global scale.

Black Sea market

Russian authorities reported yesterday a very aggressive 2018/19 export campaign launch.

Indeed, Russian operators have already loaded more than 2 Mt since July 1st against 1.1 Mt last year at the same time. Exports of Russian wheat are displayed at 1.4 Mt against 0.52 Mt last year. Those of barley to 0.46 Mt against 0.27 Mt last year. In addition to the very strong competitiveness of this origin, this good dynamic of the beginning of the campaign is mainly due to a very early harvest in the South of the country, near ports. Producers in this region are finishing harvesting wheat and barley with still disappointing results compared to last year since the reduction in yields flirts with -20 %.

Live news

Agritel estimates french 2018 soft wheat crop at 34.17 Mt