European market

Wheat prices are falling, in a context of strong competitiveness of the Black Sea origins coupled with the arrival of Argentinian origins. In Argentina, 46% of the wheat area is harvested to date. From the side of the technical analysis, after testing the resistance areas, the market could aim to fill a gap left open around 181 €/t on the March 2020 deadline.

On the international scene, Algeria bought about 500 000 t of wheat for February shipments, except for the South American origins which will have to be shipped during January. Prices are expected to be around 228 $/CIF or about 4 $ more than in the last call for tender on 21 November. Yesterday the USA sold 245 000 t of soybeans for the non-communicated destination.

The corn exports from Ukraine on the international scene are very strong; so the prices in France have not changed much.

The rapeseed displays the best performance of the last days, breaking zones of resistance. The veg oil market is supported by the palm that continues to increase. Canola prices were also growing while the Statcan report will be released today.

The euro is strengthening slightly this morning at 1.1100 against the dollar.

American market

Cereal prices were down yesterday in Chicago, due to disappointing weekly export figures, resulting from severe competition from the Black Sea origins on the international scene.

Thus the wheat exports appear this week at 228,100 tons vs expectations between 300 and 700 000 t. Corn exports are posted this week at 548 500 tons vs expectations between 500 and 900 000 t. Soybean exports are at 683,800 t, on the low end of expectations.

Soybean prices nevertheless played well, thanks to the firmness of veg oils on the international scene.

The saga of negotiations between China and the USA continues with Donald Trump sending, as usual, contradictory signals.

The funds were net sellers yesterday for 3,000 lots of wheat and 4,000 lots of corn. They were net buyers for 9,000 lots of soybeans. 

Black Sea market

Harvesting ends in Russia, with 27.5 Mha harvested for wheat, with the production of 77.9 Mt in gross weight according to the Ministry, or between 75.5 Mt and 76 Mt net weight. Barley is also finished with 8.5 Mha harvested and a very large production of 21.6 Mt which will probably leave higher end-of-season stocks as the demand for barley is down.

As for spring crops, corn is almost finished with 14.4 Mt harvested, a level well above last year (11.1 to date in 2018). In sunflower, it is the absolute record for the country which will probably finish on production around 15 Mt, very close to the Ukrainians.

In the coming season, winter wheat acreage is set for a new record in Russia, which should offset the decline in the European area.