Analysis 22/07/2020

European market

In a context where the euro is currently strengthening against the dollar, European operators are careful about the attractiveness of Black Sea origins. Thus, yesterday, the GASC finalized its call for tenders by purchasing 115,000 t of wheat from Ukraine with the Odessa region as loading area. Despite the 180-day payment period requested, the CAF prices are lower than the prices applied in the last tenders of the 13th July.

Harvests in the North and North-East of France are progressing. The results in terms of yields thus confirm an improvement compared to the first regions harvested. The reduction of the planted areas and the prospect of a generally lower yield on French territory should thus reinforce the fears of the storage company of a declining harvested volume in this period of harvest 2020.

Despite a rising euro/dollar exchange rate, grain prices posted a slight rebound yesterday for both wheat and corn on Euronext. The decline in prices that began last Thursday marks a pause with the return of some buying interests as price levels deemed attractive.

American market

Current price levels in the USA continue to generate interest in export business. Buyers are particularly looking for new crop, which shows an increase of export volumes of corn, especially to China, as well as for soybean. The USDA thus reported yesterday, for the 2020/2021 campaign, sales for 306 000 t of soybeans and 182 480 t of corn.

These elements contain the bearish movement observed on the market, compared to the previous day. However, soybean prices are showing signs of weakness as they approach the 9.00 $/b resistance zone for the September 2020 delivery.

In corn, prices are trying to stabilize on a first support zone. The good conditions of crops and weather conditions are nevertheless pushing prices to trade close to the low levels of the last few months. Wheat was also benefiting of a little support yesterday as the support zone approached and especially in response to 3 consecutive days of decline.

Black Sea market

The GASC under a new tender bought yesterday only 2 wheat vessels of Ukrainian origin. COFCO and KERNEL managed to offer the most attractive prices for loading at the end of August. The GASC tender came after a 3 euro drop on Monday on the Euronext wheat market. The fact that the contracted volume is particularly limited reflects a rather bearish market sentiment on the part of the Egyptian buyer, whereas harvest pressure could start to be expressed soon...