Analysis 27/04/2020

European market

Markets are becoming tight on the 2019’s crop. The May delivery’s prices are retreating on the Euronext wheat, a few days ahead of its expiry. Most of trades have now been done until the end of the season. Russia said that its quota of 7 Mt implemented on April 1 is now achieved.  4 Mt have been sold in April and 3 Mt on the May/June period.

To start the week, the Euro is dealing above 1.0830 vs dollar and the crude oil is down again at 15.60 $/b (WTI). Far-East stock markets are positive this morning.

On the international stage, USA sold 136 000 t of soybean to China and 125 000 t to Mexico.

On a climatic point of view, beneficial rains are forecasted for this week in France.

Last week, FranceAgrimer degraded the winter wheat crop rating to 58% of “good to excellent” vs 61% last week. This is due to the consequences of the hydric stress on the northern part of France. For winter barley, the crop rating has been displayed at 57% vs 60% last week. The sharpest revision is for the spring barley with 69% of “good to excellent” vs 78% last week.

Corn plantings were completed at 52% on April 20.

Canola prices like rapeseed lost ground on Friday. The drop of crude oil added to a decline of palm oil prices in Malaysia should weigh on the market again today.

American market

Prices dropped sharply on Friday in Chicago. The outlook of a rainy weather in Europe has weakened the wheat. In USA also, beneficial rains have been noted.

Most of agricultural commodities are penalized by logistic issues on exports due to lockdown measures in many countries. Heterogeneous demand is also weighing on prices.

The corn remains under pressure due to the fall of the ethanol demand. Plantings in the US are gaining momentum.

In soybean, the Chinese demand is back, but in lower proportions than planned. The competition with South American countries will be stiff.

On Friday, funds were net sellers in 16 000 lots of corn, 7 500 lots of soybean and 12 000 lots of wheat.

Black Sea market

The hydro-meteorological centre in Ukraine said that the level of water in country’s rivers was at its lowest for last 100 years due to a winter without enough snow and a lack of rains during spring. The water level indicators in the tributaries of the Dnieper are thus close to low water values.

Significant rains have relieved two-thirds of the north of Ukraine from West to East. Farmers in these areas have recorded between 20 and 40 mm of rains during the weekend. However, other regions like in Odessa, are still waiting for precipitations.