European market
Cereals prices were steady yesterday in a quiet market. Current uncertainties are reinforced by the consequences of the transport strike in France on the grain market. Many trains have been cancelled due to a shortage of drivers and this could progressively cause supply issues in some plants. From the start of the marketing year, the export momentum has been good both in EU and France. So far, EU has shipped 11.95 Mt of wheat and 3.6 Mt of barley which are respectively +63% and +48% more than last year to date.
On the international market, Egypt launched a new wheat tender for today, Russian origins should keep competitiveness despite another increase of Black Prices last week. Shipments for this tender are planned between the 5th and 15th of February. USA sold 300 000 t of soybean toward China as part of a free tariff quota.
Traders will pay attention to Minister’s data about wheat plantings in France. The heavy rains of these last weeks have delayed the works especially in Brittany. Agritel considers that 500 000 ha of winter surfaces could be abandoned in favour of spring crops.
The rapeseed continues to show its good orientation and prices have now reached the highest level from the start of the campaign. Palm surged again in Malaysia after MPOB said that the production has fallen by -14.35% in November while traders were expecting a decline limited to 10%.
American market
The wheat and corn declined slightly in Chicago yesterday due to a disappointing export momentum. Only the soybean made exception with a sale of 300 000 t to China. China has apparently agreed a further quota at zero tariff for 1 Mt of US soybean following the tariffs-exemption on 10 Mt already granted. This is interpreted as a goodwill gesture from China before the possible US decision to tax 160 billion $ of Chinese products from Dec15.
Wheat export inspections amounted to only 228 086 t. This figure is under the previous week and below traders’ expectations. The market should stay quiet today before the release of the monthly USDA report at 6 pm, Paris time.
Yesterday, funds were net sellers in 5 000 lots of corn and 3 000 lots of wheat. They were net buyers in 11 000 lots of soybean.
Black Sea market
Yesterday, in Paris and for the first time in three years, the Ukrainian President has met his Russian counterpart as part of the Normandy Four summit with France and Germany. The talks have been focused on the long conflict between Ukrainian army and Russian separatists in the eastern part of Ukraine. The two belligerents have agreed a “full and comprehensive” ceasefire by the end of the year. Other points have been discussed like prisoner swaps. These discussions could mark a new step in relations between the two countries even if things remain fragile with a narrow room of maneuver. Another meeting has been planned within four months to check the situation.
