Analysis 30/10/2019

European market

Yesterday at the Egyptian wheat tender the market was slightly disappointed to see only one French boat retained. Indeed, the French origin is competitive but it seems that the lack of availability on the close contract penalizes the offers at the shippers. The French operators should be careful in the future not to generate losses of international opportunities due to this retention for sale.

Thus Egypt has bought 235 000 t shared as follows:

• 60 000 t origin France at 214.50 $/FOB + 21.35 $/freight or a CIF price of 235.85 $

• 60 000 t originating in Ukraine at 219.50 $/FOB + 16.66 $/freight or a CIF price of 236.16 $

• 55 000 t originating in Ukraine at 217.45 $/FOB + 17.10 $/freight or a CIF price of 234.55 $

• 60 000 t originating in Romania at 220.75 $/FOB + 14.65 $/freight or a CIF price of 235.40 $

Rapeseed prices are still firm, especially for close contracts, supported by soybean and especially palm oils. On the other hand, Canadian canola prices were still losing ground under the harvest pressure.

In France, winter wheat planting remains disturbed by abundant rains of this month. Indeed, both the plantings and the harvests of sugar beet, corn or potatoes are delayed.

Finally, the British parliament gave its agreement yesterday for early parliamentary elections that will take place on December 12th. The future of Brexit will be played out there. In this context, the euro is changing very little and remains around 1.1100 against the dollar.

American market

In the USA, the prices were changing very little yesterday. The operators were hesitant to take a position because snowfall is expected in the coming days on the Corn Belt, which could delay the harvest sites.

Wheat remains penalized by a lack of export competitiveness, which also leads to a decline in the area planted for the next season. Soybean prices are still finding support in the hope of seeing the geopolitical tensions with China relax.

The funds were net sellers yesterday for 6,000 lots of soybeans and 2,000 lots of wheat. On the other hand, they were net buyers for 7,000 lots of corn.

Black Sea market

Harvests are progressing in Russia with yields still very good for spring crops. In corn, on October 29, the farmers harvested 1.8 Mha or 68.4% of the total area with yields reaching 5.96 t ha against 4.83 t/ha last year when the drought was registered. As for sunflower, harvests are advanced up to 83% on 7.1 Mha with yields close to 1.9 t ha against 1.6 t/ha last year. Good to note, that the sunflower production is estimated by Agritel International analysts at 14 Mt compared with 13 Mt posted by the USDA.

Finally, rapeseed yields reached 1.57 t/ha against 1.43 t/ha last year on 88.8% (1.4 Mha) of the total area. In soybean, yields are also good this year, with 1.71 t/ha vs 1.56 t/ha in 2018, harvested to date on the area of 2.4 Mha (77.8%). The harvest ends and farmers have also finished winter plantings with about 17.8 Mha sown, all grains combined.