European market

Firm oil prices and the weaker euro against the dollar were key sources of support for the European grain markets yesterday. Add to this the sharp deterioration in US winter wheat in the USDA’s weekly crop rating released on Monday evening, which provided sympathetic support to the rise in wheat on Euronext during the session.

All of this was before taking into account the USDA’s WASDE report which, once published at 18:30 Paris time, quite literally set US wheat futures markets alight and, by extension, the European market. To such an extent that the nevertheless notable gains in corn and rapeseed on Euronext last night pale in comparison with wheat, which closed near its highest levels of the past two months.

The first global balance sheets for the new 2026/2027 season released yesterday by the USDA set the tone, with attention clearly dominated by wheat. The USDA is forecasting a sharp drop in global wheat production in 2026/2027 of -24.8 mn t due to steep declines among major exporters, which are not offset by expected crop increases in North Africa or the Middle East.

Global 2025/2026 stocks as estimated by the USDA have evolved as follows:

Wheat 279.2 mn t versus 283.1 mn t last month
Corn 297 mn t versus 294.8 mn t last month, due to South American crops logically revised higher by +7 mn t to 59 mn t for Argentina and by +3 mn t to 135 mn t for Brazil.
Soybeans 125.1 mn t versus 124.8 mn t

Global 2026/2027 ending stocks forecast by the USDA are down year on year and all below expectations at:

Wheat 275 mn t
Corn 277.5 mn t
Soybeans 124.8 mn t

American market

Already very firm from the opening yesterday following the publication of a very poor weekly crop rating down 3 points, with winter wheat rated at just 28 % good to excellent, wheat prices in Chicago literally took off yesterday after the release of the USDA monthly report, to the point of hitting their daily limit up.

Often conservative and cautious in its crop forecasts, the USDA shocked the entire market by making, as early as this month of May, an extreme cut to its forecast for the 2026 US wheat crop. Based on a field survey and on its crop ratings, the USDA is now projecting total US wheat production in 2026 at 42.5 mn t versus 54 mn t in 2025. HRW wheat production in particular is expected at its lowest level in more than 50 years, due both to spring drought and winter freeze, as well as losses in unharvested acreage. US wheat stocks for 2026/2027 therefore fall to 20.7 mn t versus 25.4 mn t in 2025/2026.

In corn, US production in 2026 is expected at 406.3 mn t versus 432.3 mn t in 2026, with US ending stocks projected to drop to 49.7 mn t in 2026/2027 versus 54.4 mn t in 2025/2026.

In soybeans, higher plantings support an expected increase in the 2026 US crop to 120.7 mn t versus just 116 mn t in 2025. However, the sharp rise in domestic crushing by +3 mn t to a record 74.8 mn t, together with better exports up year on year by +2.8 mn t to 44.6 mn t, leads to a decline in 2026/2027 stocks to 8.44 mn t versus 9.25 mn t in 2025/2026.

Black Sea market

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