European market
The euro/dollar exchange rate posted a second consecutive session of decline yesterday, confirming the break below the 1.1700 level. The pullback took the pair down to 1.1530 during the day, its lowest level since late november, before stabilising below 1.1600. Such a drop led to a mechanical upward adjustment in Euronext prices, in an already tense energy market climate due to the conflict in Iran and the impact of halted transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Grain and oilseed prices are moving higher on Euronext. Wheat is approaching its highest level since last November. Market participants remain cautious, aware of the need to maintain an attractive offer for export outlets in the second half of the season compared with other origins. On this point, the European Commission has revised its soft wheat export estimate for the 2025/2026 season down by -1 mn t compared with last month, now showing a volume of 28.5 mn t. This revision mechanically leads to an upward adjustment of ending stocks, expected at 14.4 mn t at the end of June according to the Commission.
Rapeseed, May 2026 expiry, is once again testing the 500 €/t resistance zone. Rapeseed and sunflower oil prices are rising in Europe, supported by firm energy prices and by strength across other oilseeds.
American market
In response to the military situation in the Middle East, the dollar is gaining momentum, reaching its highest level against the euro since mid‑January, as well as against the basket of currencies of the Dollar Index. The latter now stands above 99 points, its highest level since 19 January. This situation is prompting US grain market operators to temper the impact of the upward momentum in oil prices observed since the start of the week, a momentum that yesterday in New York marked a +6 % increase on the nearby WTI contract.
Wheat prices did not record such a move, even posting a slight decline yesterday in Chicago. After the strong volatility of the previous session, when prices briefly exceeded 6 $/bu on the May 2026 expiry, this expiry has dropped back below 5.75 $/bu and returned to last Thursday’s level. Operators remain attentive to the situation in the Persian Gulf, but are also closely monitoring the evolution of winter crop conditions, which are benefiting, and should continue to benefit, from the arrival of rainfall.
In corn, a new exceptional sale of 196 000 t was reported yesterday by the USDA, with no destination specified. This announcement provided some support in a session where price swings were, as the day before, significant. The May 2026 contract posted a modest rise at the end of the session, standing above 4.46 $/bu. The upward momentum in oil prices is also supporting ethanol prices, which are hitting new highs amid the current rise in energy prices.
Soybean oil prices are also showing firmness and continue to trade near the recent highs reached earlier this week. This tightness in oils is providing additional support to soybean prices. The May 2026 expiry closed higher yesterday, above 11.70 $/bu, close to recent highs and above November levels.
Black Sea market
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