European market

It is with a generalized decline on all grain markets that the month of April began yesterday. The reason is another decrease in crude oil prices, back below $100/barrel in New York and London amid optimism about an imminent end to the conflict in Iran, with President Trump's statements evoking an US withdrawal "very soon".
The downward movement has been all the more marked for grains and rapeseed in the EU, amid a strong increase in the euro/dollar. The parity was back yesterday to test its resistance of 1.1630.
But the long-awaited speech by Donald Trump addressed this night to the American nation swept away the ambient optimism. The US president warned that Iran would be hit "extremely hard" for another 2 to 3 weeks, without any prospect of opening the Strait of Hormuz being mentioned. Behind the rhetoric of victory, Donald Trump has not announced an end to the war, which leaves the geopolitical risk premium intact.
Crude oil prices immediately rebounded erasing in a few minutes the last phase of decline. They are now showing at more than $105 on WTI in New York and more than $107/barrel on Brent in London. The euro/dollar meanwhile falls back towards 1.1530.
Some commercial and fundamental considerations nevertheless animate the discussions among the operators with in wheat the recurring problem of the export competitiveness of French wheat on the end of the campaign and on the beginning of the next harvest. In rapeseed, it is the weather that is debated due to cold and humid conditions that are not conducive to good flowering.

American market

The optimism of the US media and the few peaceful phrases of Donald Trump before his speech to the nation largely relaxed the US crude oil market yesterday and in its wake that of grains in Chicago.
The funds were for sale on all products yesterday on Chicago. The decline was noticed more on wheat than on corn or soybeans. Indeed, in addition to geopolitical volatility, there is a weather market situation for American HRW wheat. The return of favourable rains for the next two weeks therefore reassures operators although the critical area of western Kansas would receive little rain.

Black Sea market

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