European market
Talks on the Russia-Ukraine issue continue to drive the markets. In response to peace plans proposed first by the Americans and then adjusted by the Europeans in consultation with the main stakeholders, the markets welcome the initiative. The most telling sector for this potential peace pact remains energy. While numerous sanctions currently target Russia, a possible agreement would include guarantees allowing the country to regain its share in global trade. That was enough for oil to drop to its lowest level since last May, while TTF gas returned close to 30 €/MWh.
This bearish trend in commodities also affects certain agricultural goods, such as palm oil, which is falling in Kuala Lumpur and now hovers around the symbolic 4,000 ringgits/t mark. Competition among oils remains fierce, but rapeseed manages to stand out against soybeans, climbing back above 480 €/t for the February contract after another highly volatile session.
Grains, for their part, are moving within a narrow channel: while global demand remains strong, competition is intense among different origins. The arrival of Australian and Argentine volumes confirms the excellent harvests announced in the Southern Hemisphere. It will now be necessary to assess wheat quality, particularly in Argentina, where protein content is closely monitored.
In Ukraine, the ministry reports that 98 % of wheat is currently sown under relatively favorable weather conditions. The situation is different for the sunflower harvest, which is struggling to progress. According to local exporters, the 2025 crop will not exceed 10.5 mnt, well below the 13 mnt announced by operators just a few weeks ago.
American market
Donald Trump is everywhere: while actively participating in talks on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he is also putting strong pressure on Chinese operators to continue buying U.S. soybeans. This renewed buying momentum has been welcomed by the markets, which are back around the $11.20/bu zone in Chicago. The U.S. president is multiplying announcements to encourage the Middle Kingdom to maintain this trend. The Treasury Secretary reinforced the message by stating that China has an ambitious plan to purchase U.S. agricultural products over the coming years.
This renewed firmness in soy also supports corn, as the race for acreage in the next campaign is already underway. Before that, operators will be watching adjustments in upcoming USDA monthly reports, as the market no longer believes in the potential of 186 bu/acre announced by the government. Meanwhile, delays in publications following the shutdown are gradually being resolved, with export sales reported at 1.3 mnt of corn in early October. Although these figures are outdated and do not influence the market in the short term, they reflect strong U.S. momentum since the start of the campaign.
As for wheat, the market remains generally cautious and struggles to take a clear direction in the current context.
Black Sea market
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