European market
The truce announced for a week by Donald Trump seems to be holding. The blockade put in place since Monday of Iranian ports by the US navy also. The speeches in favour of a resumption of peace talks in the coming days are multiplying. The markets welcome this renewed optimism. The US stock markets accelerated upwards yesterday while crude oil relapsed to $91/barrel in New York and $95/barrel in London. This table is completed by a continuation of the rise of the euro / dollar up to 1.1812 yesterday, returning to the same level as last February 27 just before the outbreak of the conflict.
In this context, it is difficult for the grain market to withstand the ambient liquidative pressure. The oilseed complex, and in particular the vegetable oil sector, was particularly affected yesterday, hence a compensation for rapeseed on Euronext at 18:30 Paris time down by -4.25 €/t on the August 2026 contract at 493 €/t.
Corn is holding up better and compensating close to equilibrium on Euronext with the support of wheat, which manages to rebound despite the headwinds of the day. This rebound at the end of the session, which is only modest, was mainly due to sympathy with a strong increase on the US SRW and especially HRW wheat futures contracts because of the drought in the Great Plains.
While the questions are being asked about the spring crops planted areas in the context of the current spike in operating expenses, the French Ministry of Agriculture yesterday published its latest area estimates for winter crops for the 2026 harvest:
Soft wheat: 4,583 Mha, an increase of + 2.7% over one year
Durum wheat: 201,000 ha, i.e. +2% over one year
Winter barley: 1.263 Mha, i.e. +5.9% over one year
Spring barley 501,000 ha, -16.2% over one year
Rapeseed 1.379 Mha, i.e. +9% over one year.
The transactions will be animated this Wednesday on Euronext by the closing of the options due in May 2026 in wheat and rapeseed. It should also be remembered that the trading hours on Euronext have been extended after 18:30 until 20:15, Paris time. Only futures contracts can be processed during this new additional time slot. The options, blocks, against actual or EFP remain for their part only negotiable on the historical schedules from 10:45 to 18:30. The clearing price remains set at 18:30.
American market
The optimism of the financial markets towards an imminent outcome of the conflict in Iran weighed yesterday on the prices of soybeans and to a lesser extent corn in Chicago. These two products have also been affected by the rise in official production estimates in Brazil by Conab. Soybean production gains 1.3 Mt compared to last month's estimate of a new record of 179.15 Mt while total corn production has risen by 1.3 Mt also to 139.6 Mt.
The good progress of corn and soybean sowing as posted Monday evening by the USDA in its weekly crop progress is also weighing on these markets. But as in Europe, corn has managed to extricate itself from the ambient depression leaving only the oilseeds in the decline.
It is indeed on a slight increase that the US corn closes out of sympathy with wheat which closes on a much more frank progression. While SRW wheat prices are gaining +7 to +10 cts depending on the contract, HRW wheat is appreciating by +18.5 to +20.25 cents on the day. The contract formerly listed in Kansas City attracts all the attention in view of the violent deterioration of the state of crops in the three key states of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The absence of significant rains in the forecast further reinforces the risk premium on this HRW wheat market.
Black Sea market
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