Аналитика 01/12/2021

Европейский рынок

Panic on the markets, consequence of the Omicron variant and its impact on the world economy, impact impossible to measure at this stage. We will have to wait for the scientists' answer to apprehend the future of the markets, knowing that in the absence of new fundamental elements, it is the financial actors who are leading the dance for the moment.  This is evidenced by the selling of funds, like their actions on wheat. One can assume that they have liquidated a large part of their long positions in Chicago on this product in the space of only 3 days.

Such volatility can only lead to caution and economic reasoning and management framework.

After Egypt's massive purchase of 600,000 MT of wheat on Monday, we can expect other buyers to take advantage of the current situation to accelerate their hedging.

The European Commission has posted wheat sales outside the euro zone at 11.62 million tons, partly including the French figures, which are currently posted at 1.88 million tons, figures that are still lower than the reality, since the market estimates French exports outside the EU zone to date at over 3.3 million tons.

On the international scene, the USA sold 132,000 t of soybeans yesterday to an undisclosed destination. Japan is buying a little more than 50,000 t of wheat.

Rapeseed has been the most heavily impacted by the new variant since last week, in the wake of oil, even though the fundamentals for this product are under extreme pressure following the climatic incidents in Canada this summer. Imports of rapeseed in Europe stood at 1.88 million tons on November 28, compared to 3.00 million tons last year to date. The palm was yesterday at its lowest for 2 months, but this decline seems to stabilize, if not end this morning in Kuala Lumpur.

Американский рынок

All commodity prices have lost ground in a very important way on Chicago yesterday, thanks to liquidation sales of funds in particular. This morning in the pre-opening hours, prices are rebounding in a context of uncertainties that remain very strong.

Soybeans also suffered massive sales in a context where, barring the impact of the La Nina effect early next year, Brazil could post a record crop.

Corn is also losing ground, certainly due to sales by funds, but mainly in the wake of other products. The ethanol sector, which has been very dynamic since the beginning of the campaign, could suffer from a drop in demand in the wake of oil in the event of reconfinement or travel restrictions imposed by many countries.

Funds were net sellers yesterday for volumes estimated at 30,000 lots in corn, 20,000 lots in soybeans and 22,500 lots in wheat.

Черноморский рынок

Fall of cereal prices on the Black Sea basin, in the wake of other markets, but in a more moderate way. Indeed, the export activity remains sustained for these origins, like the Egyptian tender of this Monday in wheat. The specter of the implementation of export quotas from February by Russia remains, despite the decline in prices in recent days on the international scene.

Temperatures are in negative territory in Moscow and Kiev with snowfall, but without causing any concern for crops.