European market
Grain futures once again posted significant intraday volatility yesterday. On Euronext wheat, the approach of the September 2026 contract expiry pushed prices down to €232.50/t before the market recovered and ultimately closed only marginally lower at €240.75/t. Deferred contracts also ended the session in negative territory after an initially firmer start, supported by the reopening of U.S. markets and the lack of any tangible progress regarding the ongoing disruption to Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea port operations.
Market participants remain highly attentive to any statements or developments that could signal a change in the situation, although no meaningful breakthrough has emerged so far. Corn futures on Euronext also edged lower, despite harvest activity progressing across France, where yields are proving particularly disappointing, as anticipated following the hot and exceptionally dry summer conditions.
Crude oil prices remain a key factor to monitor as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to create uncertainty. Front-month Brent crude is now trading close to the $100/bbl threshold. In the oilseed complex, rapeseed futures posted another higher close, advancing toward a major technical resistance area near €560/t. A similar pattern is unfolding in the Canadian canola market, where November 2026 futures in Winnipeg are currently testing a significant resistance zone after returning to the recent highs established earlier this month. New-crop contracts are also gradually moving back toward recent highs amid continued uncertainty regarding seeded acreage under persistently dry conditions.
American market
Following the extended Labor Day weekend, U.S. wheat futures began the week on a firmer note, although gains were insufficient to fully offset the losses recorded late last week. After a weekend marked by visits from U.S. envoys to both Russia and Ukraine, local market participants reported no noticeable change in the situation, with continued attacks targeting port infrastructure and commercial activity remaining largely disrupted.
In Chicago, SRW wheat futures experienced another highly volatile session but ultimately settled below $7.50/bu, ending close to their opening levels. U.S. spring wheat harvest progress continues gradually, with 86% of the crop harvested according to the latest USDA figures. Winter wheat planting is only just beginning, with 2% of intended acreage already seeded.
Corn harvest is also underway, with 5% of the crop now harvested. Traders will closely monitor early yield results following disappointing field counts recorded during August. Particular attention will be focused on this week's USDA report, especially regarding any revision to the agency's 2026 U.S. corn yield outlook. Crop conditions have failed to improve and in fact slipped slightly, with 56% of acreage rated good-to-excellent. Chicago corn futures extended their decline yesterday, with the December 2026 contract settling below $5.35/bu at $5.3350/bu, close to the lows traded last week.
Soybean ratings were unchanged, with 58% of U.S. acreage classified as good-to-excellent by the USDA. Weather forecasts currently remain favourable for crop development, although market participants will continue to monitor conditions closely. Following the strong rally recorded last month, soybean futures have entered a consolidation phase, trading within a relatively narrow range between $13.10/bu and $13.20/bu on the November 2026 contract. Recent Chinese purchases continue to support U.S. new-crop export sales, while soybean planting operations are getting underway in Brazil.
