European market
The relative stabilization of the euro/dollar exchange rate, remaining below 1.1750, is providing support to grain prices, which currently adjust almost automatically to currency fluctuations. Prices on Euronext are holding above 195 €/t for the nearby September 2025 contract. Harvest progress is reassuring in terms of volume, even though recent rainfall is forcing a slowdown in field operations.
The start of the marketing season also allows exporters to gauge the appetite of importing countries, as prices are now returning to levels comparable to last year. In this early phase, the price gap between various European and Black Sea origins is noticeably narrower than it was a year ago—mainly due to the recovery in production volumes in Western Europe. In Ukraine, the UGA (Grain Traders Union) remains optimistic about trade prospects, aiming to export nearly 50 Mt of all grains and oilseeds combined, including 24 Mt of corn and 16.5 Mt of wheat—a year-on-year increase of over 5 %.
As for spring crops, weather conditions across Europe continue to warrant close monitoring, with another heatwave expected to impact spring-planted fields. Corn crops in particular are being closely watched during their flowering phase.
In oilseeds, reassuring rainfall in parts of Canada’s production zones is helping calm the market and has led to a retreat in canola seed prices in Winnipeg. This downward move is putting pressure on European rapeseed prices, even as harvests advance. The August 2025 contract on Euronext, nearing expiry, has now dropped below 460 €/t, pulling subsequent contracts down with it.
American market
Grain prices in Chicago saw little movement yesterday for both corn and wheat, as traders awaited tomorrow’s release of the USDA's monthly report. Corn prices remain near contract lows amid highly promising production prospects following recent rainfall across the Corn Belt. Traders remain very optimistic at this early flowering stage. The December 2025 contract is currently trading around 4.15 $/bu, close to its lowest levels.
Winter wheat harvest progress is bringing new supplies to market, capping prices below 5.50 $/bu on the September 2025 CME contract for SRW wheat. Market participants will pay close attention to this Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales data. Early-season export activity is being closely watched—not only because of the offered prices, but also due to the ongoing weakness of the U.S. dollar.
Wet weather is also bringing reassurance to the soybean market, where funds have been actively selling since the start of the week. Chicago futures have now slipped below 10.15 $/bu on both the August and November 2025 contracts, approaching the 10 $/bu support zone. Ongoing import tariff negotiations between the U.S. and its trade partners continue to stir concerns over U.S. soybean export prospects. Uncertainty is heightened by the presence of South America as both a major supplier and strong competitor to the U.S. in meeting global demand. As for the current trade negotiations, Brazil may face import tariffs of up to 50 % on goods bound for the U.S.—a move that would place the country among newly and heavily taxed U.S. trade partners.
Black Sea market
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