European market
Prices recorded a decline yesterday on the physical market in France as well as on Euronext for many products, adjusting downward again after the announcements at the beginning of the week concerning revisions to availability, in particular in corn in the United States. Traders remain attentive to the evolution of the euro vs the US dollar, now traded below the level of 1.1650, i.e. a strong decline after the level of 1.18 observed last month. This parity will obviously be a key factor to follow in this second half of the campaign, given the many origins also available for export to meet the needs of importing countries.
FranceAgriMer also published yesterday its new estimates of exports to non-EU countries for the current marketing year, downgrading the potential compared to its previous forecasts. In barley, the expected volume is 3.35 Mt against 3.4 Mt last month. The target for common wheat is also revised downwards, from 7.6 Mt to 7.5 Mt. However, the intra-EU wheat export activity partially compensates for this situation. European demand remains strong, with a volume that would exceed 7.5 Mt over the 2025/26 campaign. The readjustment of the national corn production, by France Agrimer, to more than 13.8 Mt, unsurprisingly leads to an increase in availability. In the end, the end-of-the-campaign stocks are increasing in corn, reaching 2.16 Mt, as well as barley at 1.55 Mt and soft wheat.
The rapeseed market also declined yesterday, showing just above €470/t for the front February 2026 contract, returning below certain technical levels. As a reminder, the closing of the options contracts for this contract is scheduled for today, January 15, while its underlying, the February 2026 futures contract, will close on January 30.
American market
After the violent downward movement caused by the publication of the latest figures from the USDA in its monthly report on Monday and Tuesday, prices recorded a modest increase yesterday, especially in wheat, corn and soybeans.
In wheat, prices in Chicago on the March 2026 contract manage to stabilize above the level of $5.10/bu. The levels treated nevertheless remain close to recent lows. This situation also favours the return of buyers, as evidenced by the new exceptional sales communicated yesterday by the USDA. During the 2025/26 marketing year, a volume of 136,000 t of corn was also sold to South Korea. New sales, for a volume of 334,000 t of soybeans, were reported to China yesterday, increasing the volume of transactions observed since the beginning of January.
On the other hand, a downward movement was observed yesterday on soybean oil, breaking the rebound dynamics observed since last December. The return of prices above 51 cts $/lb on the March 2026 contract seems to have stimulated the return of sellers. Ditto for soybean meal, whose prices remain almost unchanged compared to the previous day, under $292/t on the March 2026 contract, i.e. still at their lowest levels for more than two months.
Black Sea market
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