European market
The euro’s stabilization against the dollar, which is once again testing the 1.1600 level, is a supportive factor for the European market. At this level, grain prices remain competitive for export, especially against Black Sea competition, even though export activity still needs to pick up.
The International Grains Council (IGC) released yesterday its updated forecast for global wheat exports in the 2025/2026 season, projecting a +5.5 % increase year-on-year, with volumes expected to reach 208 mnt. At the same time, global wheat production has been revised upward, and ending stocks are also rising, now estimated at 275 mnt. For corn, record output is driving another upward revision in global stocks, now pegged at 299 mnt, roughly in line with the 2023/2024 season.
In a familiar context where fundamentals remain heavy due to completed and upcoming harvests, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, grain prices saw little movement yesterday on Euronext. Corn is gradually widening its spread over soft wheat during this harvest period. The December 2025 wheat futures contract remains close to a key technical zone, but has yet to break back above the 190 €/t threshold.
The oilseed market was more active, both in sunflower and rapeseed, across physical and futures markets. Concerns over Ukraine’s harvests are strongly supporting sunflower prices, with crushers needing to secure seed coverage and export capacity from the Black Sea region expected to be limited. Rapeseed is also trending higher, though more moderately, with distant maturities gaining around +3 €/t and testing initial technical resistance zones.
American market
The confirmation of a meeting between the Chinese and American presidents next week is raising hopes among U.S. exporters for a potential easing of trade tensions and a possible reduction in tariffs. Additionally, in the context of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the issue of China’s imports of Russian oil is also expected to be discussed during the meeting, providing further support to oil prices.
For now, no concrete agreement has been reached on these matters, but the outlook alone is enough to support markets, particularly U.S. origin agricultural commodities, and especially soybeans. In its wake, corn and wheat prices are also rising, driven by fund buying. These funds repositioned on the buy side in Chicago yesterday, triggering some short covering and profit-taking.
Soybean prices have returned to their highest level in over a month, with the November 2025 contract closing above 10.40 $/bu. Corn followed a similar trend, erasing the decline seen over the past month, and ended the day at 4.28 $/bu for the December 2025 contract. As for wheat, the rebound was more moderate, but still allowed prices to climb back above 5.10 $/bu for the nearby December 2025 contract, reaching their highest level in three weeks. This recent movement has also sparked renewed interest in the options market.
Black Sea market
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