European market
After four days off, Euronext reopens this Tuesday. Donald Trump's announcements no longer carry the same weight as they did a few weeks ago, but they remain in the spotlight. All countries are now trying to cope with the strong volatility on the international scene.
The recomposition of the flows is in progress and all the protagonists are trying to cope with the imbroglio of the moment. India is at the heart of the concerns and is launching a new call for tenders in order to source urea. Under stress, the fertilizer market could at any time push producers to review their planting, and this in the majority of countries around the world.
While Donald Trump threatens to hit Iranian energy facilities in the coming hours, crude oil resumes the upward path. WTI crosses the $116/barrel mark, while Brent is trading above $110/barrel.
Relegated to the background, the conflict in Ukraine continues to plague. Although the strikes have never stopped, this issue is coming back to the forefront for grain market operators. A ship carrying wheat between Rostov-on-Don and Port Kavkaz was hit this weekend.
On the ground, in France, the crop conditions remain good, with 84% of the wheat judged to be in a good to excellent condition, compared to 80% on average in recent years. The same goes for winter barley, with 81%, and for spring barley, with 94%.
American market
Donald Trump continues his smashing announcements, which make the energy markets react more than those of grains. Operators seem to be getting tired of the announcement effects and are now waiting for concrete elements. The next few hours will be decisive, as an ultimatum is issued to Iran.
Among the most reactive agricultural markets, vegetable oils occupy the first place. In Chicago, soybean oil crosses the symbolic mark of 70 cts/lb and continues to increase.
Beyond geopolitics, the operators ignored the new deterioration in wheat growing conditions published yesterday. The decline continues, with only 35% of the areas now judged to be in good to excellent condition, a level significantly lower than that observed in recent years. The lack of rainfall remains penalizing and, if some rains are announced, they remain too scattered to reassure the markets.
This week will also be marked by the publication of the monthly report of the USDA this Thursday, April 9, which will allow an update of the global balance sheets.
Finally, in this tense context, financial operators are now showing a net buying position in SRW wheat.
Black Sea market
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