European market

This Monday marks the 10th day of conflict in the Middle East. Military tensions are further rising in Iran and throughout the region. The passage of the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked despite US searches for a solution to restart transit. Beyond the number of tankers and freighters blocked for 10 days in the Persian Gulf, it is now the shutdown of crude oil production due to saturated storage in Iraq or Kuwait, for example, which aggravates the risk of global supply.
To this unprecedented risk, the crude oil market shows a strong rise. After a jump of 35.6% over the past week to end at $90.9/barrel on Friday evening, WTI oil in New York opened the week with an increase of more than 30% and a first test of the new level of $120/baril. It has been easing since in the direction to $100/baril. 
The Persian Gulf also represents an important part of the world production of gas, urea or sulfur. Hence the soaring world prices for these strategic raw materials and hence the fears about the global supply of fertilizers. Between biofuels, the return of inflation and now the fertilizer risk, there is no shortage of arguments for the funds to massively reposition themselves to purchases on agricultural raw materials, despite fundamentals hitherto described as very heavy. In this context, the monthly USDA report to be published this Tuesday, March 10, should hardly attract attention with operators keeping their eyes on the blocked Gulf.
In Europe, the decline in the euro/dollar which is approaching 1.1500 constitutes another support for prices. Thus, with -2.3% over the past week, the decline in the euro / dollar explains a good part of the weekly increase of +3% to +4.6% observed according to the products and according to the reference contracts in old and new campaigns on Euronext.

American market

After their procrastination at the beginning of the week, the funds are back to purchases on all products on Friday in Chicago. The soaring crude oil prices and the risks also present on the fertilizer market have fueled this bullish momentum at the end of the week.
The progress was also more rapid on wheat than on corn. Wheat being subject to short positions buyings accumulated at the beginning of the week by the funds.
The firmness is also in place on the soybean complex under the leadership of soybean oil. For the latter, the May 2026 contract on Chicago is up +7.65% over the past week.

Black Sea market

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