European market

The grain market, like all markets, will start this new week in a very high volatility dominated by the geopolitical situation. The conflict that opposes the United States and Israel to Iran since Saturday morning is putting the Middle East under continuous exchanges of missiles. In the world of raw materials, all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's crude oil trade passes every day, but also significant quantities of natural gas or urea. Hostilities threaten production and transport in the region as evidenced by cargo ships or port infrastructure damaged for 48 hours.
At the opening this week, Brent prices in London jumped by +13% to $82.17/barrel and WTI prices in New York by +12% to $75.33/barrel before correcting. The euro/dollar meanwhile falls to 1.1770, in a context where the dollar is regaining its role as a safe haven and where Europe's energy supply is threatened.
The anticipation of the risk of conflict was already at the center of the discussions on Friday. All products made significant progress on Euronext, driven by the presence of funds for purchases. Up from +3 to +4.25 €/t depending on the contracts, Euronext wheat has notably returned to the level of 200 €/t on the May 2026 contract. Up from + 2.75 to + 4.50 € / t, corn is not left out and also reaches the 200 € / t level on August 2026. Rapeseed showed smaller increase compared to grains because of an already historically long funds' position on this product.
In France, more stable weather is back, but the state of crops published on Friday by FranceAgriMer as of last Tuesday still shows a decrease:
Soft wheat: 84% good to excellent, down -4 points on the week and against 73% a year ago
Winter barley: 81% good to excellent, down by -3 points over the week and compared to 69% a year ago.

American market

A massive wave of purchases was observed on Friday from the funds on the Chicago market. The financial operators integrated a geopolitical risk premium before the weekend with a strong influence of crude oil on grains. In view of the conflict now taking place in the Middle East, there is no doubt that geopolitics and the behavior of funds will fuel the volatility of prices at the beginning of the week on the US markets.
In soybeans, the support also came from the growing enthusiasm of operators about the demand for biodiesel in the United States. In corn, the announcement of a new exceptional sale by the USDA of 257,000 t of US corn for an unknown destination maintains the good demand dynamics. Finally, in wheat, it is the return of favourable rains that is driving discussions in the United States even if the driest area on the borders of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas should remain in water deficit.

Black Sea market

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