European market
Last week ended on a very firm note, wiping out the few corrections of the previous few days. Euronext December 2024 wheat closed at a new 6-month high of €241/t, while Euronext November 2024 corn closed at €210/t, a 5-month high. Rapeseed also closed at a 7-month high, just one tick below €470/t for August 2024.
As for the weather, there are many excesses in strategic areas for cereal and oilseed production: Western Europe, the US Corn Belt and southern Brazil are being hit by excessive rainfall, while southern Russia remains in water deficit.
According to FranceAgriMer, the condition of soft wheat in France has remained stable over the past week, with 63% in "good to very good" condition, well below the 93% recorded last year. Durum wheat lost 1 point over the week to 66% "good to very good", which remains below last year's 88%. Winter barley remains stable at 66% "good to very good" compared with 91% in 2023, while spring barley has gained 1 point over the week to 74% "good to very good" compared with 94% last year.
American market
As in Europe, the US market was buoyed on Friday by the growing number of weather risks affecting wheat, corn and soybean. As a result, all commodities closed sharply higher, with funds buying back short positions.
North and South American traders are mainly concerned about the floods in Rio Grande do Sul at the time of the soybean harvest. They are also concerned about successive downward revisions to corn production estimates in Argentina due to disease. With the latest production estimate posted by the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange at 46.5 million tons, some 10 million tons of corn have already evaporated from the forecasts over the past few weeks.
While soybean production losses are still being assessed in Brazil, the USDA announced on Friday the exceptional sale of 122,000 US soybeans to an unknown destination.
