European market

Prices accelerated to the upside in the latest session, with the Euronext September wheat contract returning to a high last seen at the end of March. Meanwhile, the August corn and rapeseed contracts posted new contract highs. This firmness is in line with US prices, themselves supported by WTI crude oil, which is once again flirting with the symbolic 100 $/barrel threshold. Beyond the still‑palpable tensions in the Middle East, the surprise withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC will be a turning point and is expected to reshuffle the global trade landscape. OPEC’s role as a regulator of production, and therefore of prices, is losing its lustre with this withdrawal, as the Emirates will no longer be subject to production quotas.

The other key catalyst in recent days remains the weather: drought continues to grip a large part of Western Europe, particularly France. Yield potential has now clearly been reduced in some regions, and the rainfall forecast over the next seven days will be more than necessary to curb further yield deterioration across several areas. As in the United States, operators will wait to accurately assess the extent of the rainfall before being reassured about a deficit that, for now, remains pronounced.

Elsewhere in the world, the USDA attaché in Australia is reporting a drop in the country’s wheat production of nearly 20 % compared with last year. Although this estimate may seem early, the announced production of 29 mn t reflects higher input costs as well as potential weather risks linked to the El Niño effect. In Canada, the US attaché is also estimating a 10 % decline in wheat production, to 36.2 mn t.

Trade is also being marked by an alert from the European Commission regarding the import of several soybean meal cargoes from Brazil and Argentina. Dutch authorities report traces of GMOs not authorised in Europe, which is impacting the price dynamics of meals.

American market

US wheat is managing to inject a bullish momentum across the entire grain complex, against a backdrop of geopolitical and weather‑related turbulence. Although they have stabilised recently, winter wheat crop conditions remain open to debate, pushing HRW prices higher toward the symbolic 7 $/bu area.

At the same time, the July corn contract is returning to its highest levels since late March. The question of planted acreage in the United States remains at the heart of discussions, with field surveys showing significant discrepancies compared with the projections published by the USDA. There is little doubt that adjustments will be made in upcoming reports.

Operators are also closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East and its potential impact on energy markets, and ultimately on grains. Funds are contributing to the upward move, with fresh buying recorded in recent sessions.

Black Sea market

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