European market

Between the opening and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, it is necessary to read between the lines of the statements made by the various protagonists. Between the last session of the previous week and today, many elements have evolved once again, not without consequences for the markets. On Friday, the sharp drop in oil prices dragged the entire markets down in its wake, notably rapeseed, which fell by -14 €/t on the Aug contract, to 488 €/t. For its part, wheat lost -1.50 €/t on the May contract, to 191.25 €/t.

Although, this Monday, fundamentals have not changed compared with last week, the geopolitical and macroeconomic context is such that firmness should notably return to the energy markets. Oil is trading in the green, factoring in the new escalation of tensions. At the same time, the euro/dollar parity is back below 1.18. Although French origins have no reason to be ashamed of their competitiveness, sales remain timid due to international buyers being discreet in recent weeks. Moreover, although active on the buying side, Algeria remains reluctant to source from France.

Renewed tensions in the Middle East
On the ground, crop conditions around the globe remain generally satisfactory, as in France, where Céréobs announces the following percentages of crops rated good to excellent:

Wheat: unchanged compared with last week, at 84 %
Winter barley: unchanged at 81 %
Spring barley: -1 point, at 93 %

Announced down by nearly 10 %, corn areas are being buffeted in the current context. According to FranceAgriMer services, fieldwork shows progress of 31 %, compared with 9 % last week.

American market

As a key catalyst, U.S. weather remains under close scrutiny. The lack of precipitation across winter wheat areas has long weighed on yield potential. Uncertainty persists, with crop conditions having deteriorated markedly in recent weeks.

At the same time, the question of corn and soybean acreage for the upcoming campaign continues to arise. Faced with the sharp rise in urea prices, producers could reduce corn plantings compared with the latest USDA estimates. The lack of profitability for the grain remains tangible and should reshuffle the cards for U.S. production.

In Argentina, the soybean harvest is progressing, with around 10 % of acreage harvested. Early feedback on yields is excellent and points to large volumes. As for corn, the harvest is 25 % complete, with yields clearly improving and approaching record levels.

Finally, the geopolitical backdrop remains under close watch and is fully contributing to the strong volatility observed on markets in recent weeks.

Black Sea market

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