European market
The last week before the end-of-year holidays truce begins without any real novelty on the grain market. In this context, it is the gloom that dominates. The firmness of the euro/dollar, close to 1.1800, continues to penalize European prices already weakened by global ample supply, while the weakness of crude oil does not provide any support to the complex of agricultural raw materials.
The prices are struggling to preserve their support levels on the front Euronext contracts. This is particularly the case for wheat, which is the most exposed to international competition. Corn and rapeseed are resisting the downward pressure better, still benefiting from the support linked to the low imports from Ukraine in the EU in recent weeks. For corn in particular, the harvest is struggling to progress on the shores of the Black Sea, which maintains interest in French origins and maintains the very small price gap between wheat and corn on Euronext.
In rapeseed, it is above all the new regulations proposed in Germany as part of the RED III directive that allowed European prices to limit the decline last week. However, the fundamentals remain comfortable and the pressure of the other products of the complex should gradually take hold. This is all the more true since the price gap between European rapeseed and Canadian canola remains particularly high, encouraging imports into the EU.
American market
The market participants in Chicago remain particularly attentive to the export activity of the United States, in particular to the catch-up publications made by the USDA after the shutdown of this fall.
Weekly export sales for the week of November 20 disappointed in wheat, with only 369,200 t. In corn, although the volumes were significant (1,843 Mt), the figures are in line with expectations and were not enough to stem the downward pressure ambient.
In soybeans, export sales are certainly high (2,321 Mt), but this is not surprising given the exceptional sales already recorded on November 20. As for corn, the bearish climate remains dominant. Note, however, new exceptional sales announced yesterday by the USDA: 136,000 t of soybeans to China and 150,320 t of corn to an unknown destination.
Black Sea market
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