European market

The volatility remains prevalent across all financial markets, from equities to bonds, including currencies and especially commodities, which continue to be dominated by oil. Yesterday’s strengthening of the latter, with Brent crude climbing back above $100 per barrel in London, helped provide some support to grain prices on both sides of the Atlantic.

However, oil is falling again this morning in both London and New York. The White House has reportedly proposed a 15‑point negotiation plan to Iran, including a one‑month ceasefire. While U.S. media are echoing this potential initiative, the tone from the Iranian side still appears belligerent.

The euro/dollar is also worth watching. After spending much of last week below 1.15, it is now fluctuating around 1.1600 and is putting additional pressure on grain prices in Europe.

On the wheat market, international discussions will be lively today with Algeria’s return to purchasing. With FOB prices rising among major exporters in recent weeks and freight costs surging, the outcome of this tender—both in terms of volume and C&F prices—will be closely monitored.

Among major grain‑producing countries, the usual weather‑related issues that dominate discussions throughout the spring are now being compounded by the thorny question of fertilizers. Urea prices continue to rise on the international market. And after China imposed an embargo on all its fertilizer exports, Russia is now halting its ammonium nitrate exports for one month.

American market

The Chicago market remained cautious yesterday in the face of the ongoing swings in oil prices and the chain reactions they trigger across financial markets. The U.S. wheat market is showing some signs of firmness following the further deterioration in crop ratings across the southern Great Plains, where excessive temperatures and water deficits are raising concerns.

Corn and soybeans are consolidating as the market awaits the new U.S. biofuel mandates, which the EPA has promised to release before the end of March. While corn prices managed to post a slight gain at yesterday’s close, soybeans moved slightly lower, pressured by a more fragile oil market compared with last week. Soybean oil, however, remains firm and upbeat.

Black Sea market

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