European market

Uncertainty remains the watchword on European markets at the end of the month, with hesitant prices. The correction seen on grains after last week’s bullish move is still limited, even though, fundamentally, supply remains abundant enough to prevent a quick break above resistance levels.

At the same time, international demand is resurfacing through several wheat tenders. The first came from Algeria midweek, now joined by Saudi Arabia, which is looking for 655 000 t for shipments between May and July. Competition between Black Sea and Australian origins will be closely watched on this front.

This Friday, the release of crop conditions in France by Céréobs will be followed closely, even if it’s worth noting the return of more favorable weather, allowing fieldwork to resume in many regions. Fertilizer applications have picked up again, which reassures producers. Rapeseed prices have welcomed the return of drier weather, testing resistance at 490 €/t on the May contract.

Finally, geopolitics remains a key factor, with grain markets still sensitive to moves in oil. Uncertainty around the Iranian situation continues to generate a risk premium on prices, which will need to be confirmed or dismissed in the coming weeks.

American market

A key driver of the recent rally, U.S. wheat took a breather midweek. Still, the Plains region remains under close scrutiny, as in some areas winter wheat is facing a notable moisture deficit. These factors pushed financial players to buy back part of their positions before pausing. The situation remains particularly concerning in Texas, where field reports point to difficult conditions.

Meanwhile, export sales all came in at the lower end of expectations this week: 243 000 t for wheat, 686 000 t for corn and 407 000 t for soybeans. It’s worth noting, however, a new exceptional sale of 178 000 t of corn to Japan, confirming the positive trend toward that country.

Soybeans remain on an upward trend, supported in particular by the strong performance of soybean oil. Expectations surrounding EPA statements are still seen as a positive signal for crush, even if some uncertainty remains on this front. In any case, prices remain in a phase of significant firmness.

Black Sea market

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